Dems' rosiest outlook in years for gov seat

Mar 8, 2010 — Houston Chronicle

Joe Holley

Mar. 8, 2010 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- Attorneys general, former lawmakers and a slew of lawyers have ascended to the Texas Governor's Mansion, as have a flour manufacturer, a housewife and a couple of oilmen. Bill White, if he beats Gov. Rick Perry in November, would be the first mayor to make that triumphant trek to Austin.

"Local politics is designed to piss everybody off, so it's never been a very good entree for career building," said James Riddlesperger, a political scientist at Texas Christian University.

Still, a big-city mayor who was re-elected twice by huge margins would seem to have a leg up in his quest for higher office, even as his opponent's oppo-research team truffles for "sanctuary city" pronouncements, budget problems, ties to Washington and other nutritious campaign fodder.

The former Houston mayor arguably is the strongest gubernatorial candidate Democrats have nominated since Ann Richards in 1990. Not only is he a proven fund-raiser, but his business background makes it a challenge for Republicans to label him as Barack Obama's Texas twin.

As in any election, money is key. What White does with that money is vital, said Garry Mauro, a former Texas land commissioner who lost to George W. Bush in the 1998 governor's race.

"First of all, he's got to define himself, because the Perry people will be happy to do it for him," Mauro said. "Bill White is a liberal Democrat who supports Obama and health care. If this election is about Obama and health care, Bill White loses. If he makes this race about the governor's record -- the failure of secondary and primary education, higher education out of reach of most middle-class families, clogged roads -- then he's got a chance."

Keeping focus in state

James Henson, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, agreed. "The Hutchison campaign was Exhibit A for what not to do," he said. "Do not let the Perry campaign define you early. Do not let them frame the election on their terms."

Keeping the focus on state issues could help White attract independents and Republican moderates offended by Perry's shift to the right during the primary. White has to have them if he is going to overcome the Republican numbers advantage in a red state.

The strategy was on display at White's Austin news conference the day after the primary. He said that Texas, in better shape than most during the recession, still has the highest number of unemployed in its history. He also noted that local property taxes continue to rise because of cutbacks in school finance and that the high cost of tuition at Texas colleges and universities is an ever-increasing burden. "Perry's problem is his job performance," he said.

'One-sentence mantra'

Focusing on questions of competence during Perry's tenure, the longest in Texas history, also will help White avoid the issues that traditionally befuddle Democrats, among them gun control, abortion and immigration.

"Just take him [Perry] on," Riddlesperger said, noting that Hutchison probably lost the election the moment she couldn't clearly and cleanly answer a debate question last month about Roe v. Wade. "You can't win in that fight, so you have to have canned answers to every one of those questions -- a one-sentence mantra, at most two sentences that you repeat every time somebody asks it. And then you move on."

Henry Cisneros, the former mayor of San Antonio who used to be mentioned as a future Texas governor, sees the education issue as key for White, particularly as it relates to rousing the Hispanic vote. Hispanic voters have been trending Democratic in Texas and throughout the Southwest, but the party has been waiting for years for them to exert the political influence that demographics would suggest.

Cisneros argues that Hispanics are waiting for an issue that moves them. He maintains it's education. He also contends that White, who speaks fluent Spanish, can make a persuasive case that education reform is an issue worth their vote.

"It's the one place where the governor of Texas can make the greatest difference, where he has major power and flexibility and influence," he said. "Where the interest of the community and the state role come together is education -- K through 16, not just K through 12."

'Not going to be easy'

Cisneros also contends that the education issue resonates with other major voting blocs White must turn out if he is going to be competitive. White's mayoral experience, Cisneros insists, is an advantage in the governor's race, since he's had to deal with Hispanics, African-Americans and other voting blocs and since Texas cities make up a significant share of the electorate.

"It's not going to be easy, because Perry has done such a good job being visible himself," Cisneros said. "He's spent a lot of time in San Antonio -- and I'm using San Antonio as a proxy for South Texas -- and he's been very good to San Antonio. Plus, he's bonded with Hispanic chambers of commerce across the state."

Democrats see signs of hope, including a recent Rasmussen telephone survey that showed White trailing Perry by only six points, 49 to 43.

Mauro, who has known Perry since the two were in school together at Texas A&M, has a final word of caution for the Democratic hopeful: "Do not underestimate Rick Perry. The road is littered with the corpses of politicians who underestimated Rick Perry."

joe.holley@chron.com

Newstex ID: KRTB-0089-42673512